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Home Energy Natural Gas By Irina Slav - Sep 19, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT European LNG demand is surging ahead of winter, with imports expected to climb sharply as gas storage remains below seasonal norms and Qatari supply stays constrained. Asia is pulling back as spot LNG prices soar, with September imports set to fall year over year as price-sensitive buyers turn to alternatives such as coal. Europe has little choice but to keep buying expensive LNG, setting up another bidding contest with Asia and raising the risk of even higher winter gas prices.
Liquefied natural gas prices on the spot market are moving higher as demand picks up seasonally and Asian importers are souring on the fuel. European buyers are stepping up purchases, however, despite the price. They have no choice.
Asian demand for liquefied gas is set to decline this month—and over the year—according to analysts . September flows of LNG into Asian countries are estimated at 20.09 million tons by Kpler, which would be down from 22.27 million tons a year ago, and 22.25 million tons a month ago, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported this week. At the same time, European LNG imports are on track to increase this month, to 7.98 million tons, rising further to as much as 10.53 million tons in October, as the level of natural gas in storage across the European Union remains substantially below the five-year average for this time of the year.
LNG was trading at $26 per million British thermal units in the week to September 11 and is unlikely to decline anytime soon. Qatar’s LNG export hub remains largely closed for business, with QatarEnergy reported to be seeking deals for U.S. liquefied gas to 2031 to make up for lost local supply in long-term contracts with international clients. The UAE is getting some liquefied gas out of the Persian Gulf but it is not enough to cover the loss of Qatari gas.
The shortfall in LNG supply resulting from Qatar’s force majeure was estimated at some 12.8 million tons annually by the country’s energy minister earlier this year. Many are pinning hopes on new U.S. capacity coming on stream soon, but “soon” does not mean “next week,” and this is a problem for gas importers ahead of winter. So, Asia and Europe are again locked in a race for a limited amount of supply.
As in previous years, Europe is having to pay a hefty premium to draw cargoes from Asia. As noted by Reuters’ Russell, the affordability problem of most Asian LNG importers is helping secure the additional supply. After all, LNG spot prices are up 150% from February, before the United States and Israel began bombing Iran.
A 150% price surge is no small potatoes for anyone, including the European Union. However, it has no other options. Norway gas imports are already at their peak, Russian pipeline gas is out due to sanctions, and Russian liquefied gas is about to follow come January.
So, the EU is importing as much LNG as it can, despite the price. In fact, Kpler expects annual imports this year to break last year’s record of 125.20 million tons. Over the first eight months of the year, imports stood at 117.01 million tons, and there are still four months left—four months that will see higher LNG flows into European countries under Brussels' leadership.
They will also see higher prices. Just how high the PNG import bill could go remains to be seen. The prospect of a sharp price rise is real and the result of a gamble that European gas buyers took earlier this year as they delayed the start of purchases for storage refilling, expecting a quick end to the Middle East war and a return of Qatari gas to markets.
The longer the war continued, the slimmer the chances of that happening were, but European buyers continued delaying purchases—until it became clear LNG was not getting cheaper anytime soon. Now, they have no choice but to buy high and risk a price slump. This is what happened back in the winter of 2022, when European gas companies rushed to buy gas to secure winter supply, the winter turned out mild, demand was lower than expected, and prices dropped, resulting in billions in losses.
This scenario is unlikely to repeat this winter, even if it is a mild one, because back in 2022, European countries still had access to some Russian pipeline gas. This year, this is no longer the case. Meanwhile, in Asia, China is doing with LNG what it did with oil earlier in the year.
It is limiting its imports of the superchilled fuel from the spot market and staying with long-term fixed-price and oil-linked contracts—and it’s getting plenty of pipeline gas from Russia, as well. In a way, China is helping curb the effect of lost Qatari volumes for the rest of the world thanks to its energy supply diversification strategy. Those countries that can no longer afford to buy spot LNG will turn to coal and other sources of power generation.
Those that can still afford to buy spot cargoes—even at the risk of experiencing growing financial pains—such as EU members, will be forced to do so after they shut down their coal power plants and, in Germany’s case, their nuclear power plants, too. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com Oil Prices Head for Weekly Loss as Saudi Export Fears Ease Germany Weighs Market Incentives to Boost Record Low Gas Storage Level TTF Gas Hits $92.95 as Gulf Tensions Weigh on Energy Markets Download The Free Oilprice App Today Back to homepage Irina Slav What I Cover Irina Slav has been writing about global energy markets since 2007, covering the oil and gas industry, energy security, commodities, and the... More Info Leave a comment EXXON Mobil -0.35 Open 57.81 Trading Vol. 6.96M Previous Vol. 241.7B BUY 57.15 Sell 57.00
